{
  "study_id": "O0-CRP-013",
  "title": "Under a predictive-processing observer, h_hat and u_hat replicate Study B in direction but k_hat FLIPS: a partial architecture-dependence finding",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "date": "2026-07-27",
  "record_class": "REPLICATION",
  "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation",
  "branch": "08_REPLICATIONS",
  "follow_up_to": ["O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-012"],
  "research_status": "complete",
  "evidence_type": "computational_simulation_cross_architecture",
  "replication_status": "cross_architecture_at_study_b_seeds",
  "physical_validation": "none",
  "biological_validation": "none",
  "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory",
  "top_line_verdict": "MECHANISM-FLIPPED",
  "verdict_decomposition": {
    "endpoints_replicating_direction_under_PP": ["h_hat", "u_hat"],
    "endpoints_flipping_direction_under_PP": ["k_hat", "TAI"],
    "verdict_rule_triggered": "d < -0.5 AND p < 0.0125 on k_hat and TAI at all three regimes"
  },
  "n_total_trials": 30720,
  "confirmatory_seeds": {"first": 5000, "last": 5029},
  "exploratory_seeds": {"first": 500, "last": 511},
  "study_b_anchor_seeds_used_for_arch_comparison": {"first": 1000, "last": 1029},
  "T": 200,
  "alpha": 0.90,
  "prior_regimes": ["ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL"],
  "elapsed_seconds": 8.4,
  "cohens_d_by_regime": {
    "ANCHOR":    {"k_hat": -32.355, "h_hat": 14.752, "u_hat":  4.419, "tai": -32.355},
    "FLAT":      {"k_hat": -32.385, "h_hat": 11.418, "u_hat":  5.249, "tai": -32.385},
    "SKEPTICAL": {"k_hat": -32.327, "h_hat":  7.463, "u_hat":  3.531, "tai": -32.327}
  },
  "direct_architecture_comparison_at_study_b_seeds": {
    "seeds": {"first": 1000, "last": 1029},
    "regime": "ANCHOR",
    "cohens_d_head_to_head": {
      "k_hat":  {"bayesian_study_b": 4.408,  "pp_r3": -31.514, "direction_preserved": false},
      "h_hat":  {"bayesian_study_b": 53.574, "pp_r3": 22.283,  "direction_preserved": true},
      "u_hat":  {"bayesian_study_b": 73.853, "pp_r3":  4.024,  "direction_preserved": true},
      "tai":    {"bayesian_study_b": 4.408,  "pp_r3": -31.514, "direction_preserved": false}
    }
  },
  "philosophical_provenance": {
    "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md (local reference)",
    "section": "revelation vs. ordinary learning (via Study B provenance)",
    "proposition": "Revelation is a distinct cognitive event, not merely accurate testimony.",
    "relationship": "cross-architecture generalization test of the O0-CRP-011 operationalization",
    "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study establishes that Study B's H2 mechanism decomposes into (a) an architecture-invariant credit-assignment component that reproduces R > D on hidden-access and authorship endpoints, and (b) an architecture-specific knowledge-attribution component that requires the Bayesian opacity-hedge to yield R > D."
  },
  "adversarial_notes": {
    "strongest_remaining_alternative": "The k_hat flip is a consequence of the specific PP observation model (y_k = log|V(m)| directly observed). Alternative PP designs (PP-A: no direct y_k; PP-B: semantic knowledge signal) might not flip. These are next in the replication queue.",
    "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-013-R1 (PP-A observer: no direct y_k) — does the k_hat flip vanish when the observer only infers knowledge through credit assignment?"
  },
  "replication_queue": [
    {"id": "O0-CRP-013-R1", "type": "pp_no_direct_yk", "status": "COMPLETED", "record_id": "O0-CRP-014",
     "verdict": "k-DIRECTION-RESOLVED / PRELIMINARY SUPPORT",
     "hypothesis": "Removes the direct observation of y_k; tests whether the k_hat flip is caused specifically by that observation term.",
     "outcome": "Confirmed R3 §9.1 prediction: removing direct y_k restores k_hat direction to R > D (d = +8.4 vs R3 -32.4). Three-way head-to-head at Study B seeds: Bayesian +4.4 → PP -31.5 → PP-A +7.9."},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-013-R2", "type": "pp_semantic_knowledge", "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "Uses a semantic-embedding-based knowledge signal instead of variable count."},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-013-S1", "type": "pp_hyperparameter_sweep", "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "Sweeps KAPPA_CREDIT and observation-noise precision to characterize the region where the h_hat / u_hat effect obtains."},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-013-R3", "type": "active_inference_agent", "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "Full Friston-style active inference agent, not just Kalman PP."},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-013-R4", "type": "reinforcement_learning_observer", "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "RL agent estimating source-attribution as value function."}
  ],
  "files": {
    "record": "scientific_record.md",
    "preregistration": "preregistration.md",
    "observer_script": "src/pp_observer.py",
    "run_script": "src/run_study.py",
    "analysis_script": "src/analyze.py",
    "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl",
    "summary_json": "results/summary.json",
    "analysis_json": "results/analysis.json",
    "run_log": "run_all.log",
    "figures": [
      "figures/01_confirmatory_by_regime.png",
      "figures/02_direct_arch_comparison.png",
      "figures/03_trajectories_anchor.png",
      "figures/04_mechanism_decomposition.png"
    ]
  }
}