{
  "study_id": "O0-CRP-015",
  "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-002 Subjective Temporal Contact",
  "title": "Trajectory-lookup and past-only prediction produce distinguishable observer signatures under visible derivations but converge under opacity",
  "version": "1.0.1",
  "date": "2026-07-27",
  "record_class": "SIMULATION",
  "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation",
  "branch": "04_TEMPORALITY",
  "non_drift_question": "TEMPORALITY",
  "first_study_on_branch": true,
  "research_status": "complete",
  "evidence_type": "computational_simulation_factorial_2x2",
  "replication_status": "none yet; R1..R3 registered",
  "physical_validation": "none",
  "biological_validation": "none",
  "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory",
  "top_line_verdict": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT",
  "verdict_summary": {
    "all_regimes_visible_support": true,
    "all_regimes_opaque_veil": true,
    "any_opaque_confound": false,
    "specificity_leaks": [],
    "primary_endpoint": "tra_hat (trajectory-level-access posterior mean at t=200)",
    "primary_effect_sizes_by_regime": {
      "ANCHOR":    {"cohens_d_visible":  9.34, "diff_mean_visible":  0.507, "diff_mean_opaque":  0.000},
      "FLAT":      {"cohens_d_visible":  9.14, "diff_mean_visible":  0.503, "diff_mean_opaque":  0.000},
      "SKEPTICAL": {"cohens_d_visible":  9.69, "diff_mean_visible":  0.512, "diff_mean_opaque":  0.000}
    }
  },
  "n_total_confirmatory_trials": 1440,
  "confirmatory_seeds": {"first": 7000, "last": 7029, "note": "fresh, disjoint from all prior studies"},
  "exploratory_seeds": {"first": 800, "last": 811},
  "determinism_seeds": {"first": 800, "last": 804},
  "T": 200,
  "alpha": 0.90,
  "mode_reliability_rho": 0.85,
  "trajectory_window": 5,
  "prior_regimes": ["ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL"],
  "elapsed_seconds_end_to_end": 17.7,
  "design": {
    "factor_1": {"name": "prediction_mode", "levels": ["P (past-only)", "TA (trajectory-lookup)"]},
    "factor_2": {"name": "visibility", "levels": ["visible", "opaque"]},
    "factor_3": {"name": "prior_regime", "levels": ["ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL"]},
    "factor_4_control": {"name": "observer_mode", "levels": ["temporal-aware (tra_hat enabled)", "STANDARD (tra_hat disabled)"], "purpose": "null control confirming manipulation is invisible to pre-existing registers"}
  },
  "observer_extension": {
    "new_register": "tra_hat (Beta posterior on P(source has trajectory-level access))",
    "prior_regimes": {
      "ANCHOR":    "Beta(1, 4) — mildly skeptical",
      "FLAT":      "Beta(1, 1) — uniform",
      "SKEPTICAL": "Beta(1, 10) — strongly skeptical"
    },
    "update_constants": {
      "VISIBLE_TRAJECTORY_SKEPTIC": 0.2,
      "GAMMA_TRA": 0.02
    }
  },
  "adversarial_controls_passed": [
    "determinism_gate (5 seeds x 4 conditions x 2 replicated runs, bit-identical)",
    "paired_accuracy_match (P and TA share identical accuracy patterns per seed)",
    "STANDARD_observer_null_control (base 8-register observer sees zero P vs TA difference)",
    "endpoint_specificity (no leakage onto h_hat, u_hat, f_hat)",
    "all_three_prior_regimes_agree",
    "opacity_veil_confirmed (identical means across P and TA under opacity)"
  ],
  "philosophical_provenance": {
    "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md (local reference)",
    "section": "higher-order source appearing timeless / trajectory-level perspective",
    "proposition": "A higher-order perspective may see the completed trajectory all at once while a finite observer experiences it sequentially.",
    "relationship": "computational operationalization of one specific temporality distinction (prediction vs trajectory-lookup) — the study does NOT operationalize 'genuine timelessness'",
    "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study establishes only that ONE specific Bayesian observer architecture with ONE specific tra_hat update rule can distinguish trajectory-lookup from past-only prediction under visibility, using ONE specific source specification (alpha=0.9, rho=0.85, trajectory-window=5). Real cognitive systems, real trajectory-access mechanisms, and the metaphysical interpretation of timelessness are all outside what this study can establish."
  },
  "adversarial_notes": {
    "strongest_remaining_alternative": "The tra_hat register was specifically designed to detect trajectory access; the fact that it does so under a Bayesian observer does not generalize to other architectures.",
    "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-015-R3 (PP-observer variant)"
  },
  "replication_queue": [
    {"id": "O0-CRP-015-R1", "type": "trajectory_window_sweep", "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "tra_hat discrimination scales predictably with trajectory window length (window in {1, 3, 5, 10, 20})"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-015-R2", "type": "deceptive_future_derivations", "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "Source emits future-indexed derivations that are actually past-derived (deceptive TA); tests whether tra_hat can be spoofed and whether h_hat/u_hat catch the deception"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-015-R3", "type": "pp_observer_variant", "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "Cross-architecture test under PP observer with tra_hat register; matches R3/R4 methodology for Study B"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-015-A1", "type": "tra_vs_f_hat_analysis", "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "Analysis-only investigation of tra_hat vs f_hat (conceptually related, operationally distinct)"}
  ],
  "files": {
    "record": "scientific_record.md",
    "preregistration": "preregistration.md",
    "temporal_message": "src/temporal_message.py",
    "temporal_source": "src/temporal_source.py",
    "temporal_observer": "src/temporal_observer.py",
    "run_script": "src/run_study.py",
    "analysis_script": "src/analyze.py",
    "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl",
    "summary_json": "results/summary.json",
    "analysis_json": "results/analysis.json",
    "run_log": "run_all.log",
    "figures": [
      "figures/01_2x2_factorial.png",
      "figures/02_endpoint_specificity.png",
      "figures/03_tra_trajectories.png",
      "figures/04_standard_null_control.png"
    ]
  }
}