{
  "study_id": "O0-CRP-016",
  "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-004 Total Authorship Attribution",
  "title": "Study B's factored Bayesian observer is partially credulous under weak priors: unsupported total-authorship claims shift u_hat above the leak threshold at ANCHOR and FLAT but not at SKEPTICAL, and claim-plus-evidence adds essentially nothing beyond evidence alone",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "date": "2026-07-27",
  "record_class": "SIMULATION",
  "program": "O0-CRP-001 Contact and Revelation",
  "branch": "06_TOTAL_AUTHORSHIP",
  "non_drift_question": "AUTHORSHIP",
  "first_study_on_branch": true,
  "research_status": "complete",
  "evidence_type": "computational_simulation_factorial_2x2",
  "replication_status": "none yet; R1..R4 registered",
  "physical_validation": "none",
  "biological_validation": "none",
  "exploratory_vs_confirmatory": "preregistered_confirmatory",
  "top_line_verdict": "CREDULOUS-OBSERVER (at ANCHOR and FLAT priors); RESISTANT (at SKEPTICAL prior)",
  "verdict_summary": {
    "H_true_reality_supports_all_regimes": false,
    "H_null_reality_resistance_all_regimes": false,
    "H_null_reality_resistance_by_regime": {
      "ANCHOR": false,
      "FLAT": false,
      "SKEPTICAL": true
    },
    "H_evidence_dominates_over_claim": "SUPPORTED at all regimes (evidence-alone beats claim-alone by delta 0.226-0.627)",
    "H_max_effect_marginal": "TRUE-REALITY x TOTAL is highest at all regimes, but marginal effect over TRUE-REALITY x NO-CLAIM is only 0.001-0.012",
    "primary_credulity_deltas_by_regime": {
      "ANCHOR":    {"noclaim_null_u": 0.010, "total_null_u": 0.174, "delta": 0.164, "credulous": true},
      "FLAT":      {"noclaim_null_u": 0.500, "total_null_u": 0.750, "delta": 0.250, "credulous": true},
      "SKEPTICAL": {"noclaim_null_u": 0.002, "total_null_u": 0.040, "delta": 0.038, "credulous": false}
    },
    "evidence_alone_beats_claim_alone_by_regime": {
      "ANCHOR":    {"claim_alone": 0.174, "evidence_alone": 0.800, "delta": 0.627},
      "FLAT":      {"claim_alone": 0.750, "evidence_alone": 0.976, "delta": 0.226},
      "SKEPTICAL": {"claim_alone": 0.040, "evidence_alone": 0.445, "delta": 0.405}
    },
    "marginal_claim_when_evidence_present_by_regime": {
      "ANCHOR":    {"evidence_only": 0.800, "both": 0.808, "delta": 0.008},
      "FLAT":      {"evidence_only": 0.976, "both": 0.977, "delta": 0.001},
      "SKEPTICAL": {"evidence_only": 0.445, "both": 0.457, "delta": 0.012}
    }
  },
  "n_total_confirmatory_trials": 360,
  "confirmatory_seeds": {"first": 8000, "last": 8029, "note": "fresh, disjoint from all prior studies"},
  "exploratory_seeds": {"first": 900, "last": 911},
  "determinism_seeds": {"first": 900, "last": 904},
  "T": 200,
  "alpha": 0.90,
  "K_claim_period": 10,
  "prior_regimes": ["ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL"],
  "u_priors": {
    "ANCHOR":    [0.1, 10.0],
    "FLAT":      [1.0, 1.0],
    "SKEPTICAL": [0.1, 50.0]
  },
  "authorship_update_weights": {
    "CLAIM_WEIGHT": 0.1,
    "CHANGE_WEIGHT": 2.0
  },
  "elapsed_seconds_end_to_end": 12.9,
  "design": {
    "factor_1": {"name": "attribution", "levels": ["NO-CLAIM", "TOTAL"]},
    "factor_2": {"name": "reality",     "levels": ["NULL-REALITY", "TRUE-REALITY"]},
    "factor_3": {"name": "prior_regime", "levels": ["ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL"]}
  },
  "adversarial_controls_passed": [
    "determinism_gate (5 seeds x 4 cells x 2 replicated runs, bit-identical)",
    "paired_accuracy_match (all 4 cells share identical accuracy patterns per seed)",
    "event_schedule_sanity (20 claim events + 20 change events per trial as expected)",
    "endpoint_specificity (h_hat unchanged across cells; k_hat unchanged; a_hat determined only by shared accuracy pattern)",
    "pure_null_cell_reproduces_prior_exactly (NO-CLAIM x NULL-REALITY = prior mean at all regimes)",
    "SKEPTICAL_prior_resistance (delta 0.038 below 0.05 leak threshold)"
  ],
  "philosophical_provenance": {
    "record": "# The O-0 Phenomenon- A Unified Framework.md",
    "section": "Total-authorship framing: 'every apparent entity is a transformation of the source' / 'only your name in the credits'",
    "proposition": "The observer, encountering total-authorship claims, should distinguish claims from evidence and require both for full authorship attribution.",
    "relationship": "computational operationalization of the epistemic dynamics; the study tests a Bayesian observer's response to authorship claims under matched-vs-mismatched reality",
    "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study establishes only that ONE specific Bayesian observer with ONE specific u_hat update rule shows prior-dependent credulity to unsupported authorship claims. Real cognitive systems, real authorship dynamics, and the metaphysical interpretation are all outside what this study can establish."
  },
  "adversarial_notes": {
    "strongest_remaining_alternative": "The credulity finding reflects the CLAIM_WEIGHT = 0.1 design choice interacting with prior strength; a study with CLAIM_WEIGHT = 0 would show pure resistance. This is characterized in R2.",
    "discriminating_next_test": "O0-CRP-016-R2 (weight sensitivity sweep)"
  },
  "replication_queue": [
    {"id": "O0-CRP-016-R1", "type": "frequency_sweep",        "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "u_hat credulity scales predictably with claim frequency K in {1, 5, 10, 20, 50}"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-016-R2", "type": "weight_sensitivity",     "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "Setting CLAIM_WEIGHT = 0 restores resistance at all priors; intermediate weights identify the credulity threshold"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-016-R3", "type": "deceptive_authorship",   "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "Source claims TOTAL and produces change events, but changes are actually random noise (not caused by source). Tests whether observer can detect false attribution."},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-016-R4", "type": "pp_observer_variant",    "status": "planned",
     "hypothesis": "PP-observer with authorship-aware update rule; cross-architecture test matching R3/R4 methodology"}
  ],
  "files": {
    "record": "scientific_record.md",
    "preregistration": "preregistration.md",
    "authorship_message": "src/authorship_message.py",
    "authorship_source": "src/authorship_source.py",
    "authorship_observer": "src/authorship_observer.py",
    "run_script": "src/run_study.py",
    "analysis_script": "src/analyze.py",
    "raw_confirmatory": "data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl",
    "summary_json": "results/summary.json",
    "analysis_json": "results/analysis.json",
    "run_log": "run_all.log",
    "figures": [
      "figures/01_2x2_factorial.png",
      "figures/02_credulity_audit.png",
      "figures/03_u_trajectories.png",
      "figures/04_marginal_contribution.png"
    ]
  }
}