{ "id": "O0-CRP-018", "title": "SIM-CRP-001 · Contact Gradient — Six-condition Bayesian Study of Higher-order Attribution", "semantic_name": "SIM-CRP-001", "record_class": "SIMULATION", "version": "1.0.0", "status": "PRELIMINARY SUPPORT", "evidence_level": "computational_simulation", "replication_status": "not_replicated", "program": "contact_and_revelation", "non_drift_question": "CONTACT", "opens_branch": "CONTACT", "date": "2026-07-27", "source_record": "OA-O001", "related_records": [ "O0-CRP-001", "O0-CRP-004", "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-013", "O0-CRP-015", "O0-CRP-016", "O0-CRP-017" ], "design_summary": { "n_conditions": 6, "conditions": ["C0", "C1", "C2", "C4", "C7", "C9"], "n_prior_regimes": 3, "regimes": ["ANCHOR", "FLAT", "SKEPTICAL"], "n_seeds_confirmatory": 30, "n_seeds_exploratory": 12, "n_seeds_determinism": 5, "total_trials": 540, "n_messages_per_trial": 200, "world_size": 50, "observed_set_size": 15, "hidden_set_size": 35 }, "null_gates": { "determinism": {"passed": true, "n_seeds": 5, "n_endpoints_checked": 6}, "paired_accuracy": {"passed": true, "note": "C1..C9 identical accuracy patterns per seed"}, "c7_c9_identity": {"passed": true, "note": "byte-identical Message streams at every seed"} }, "primary_findings": { "H_gradient_monotonic": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "kendall_tau_b_anchor": 0.881, "kendall_tau_b_flat": 0.881, "kendall_tau_b_skeptical": 0.881, "p_greater_than_zero": "<0.0001 at all regimes" }, "H_c7_vs_c9_indistinguishable": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "paired_diff_mean": 0.0, "max_abs_diff": 0.0, "note": "Exact identity by design — observable streams byte-identical" }, "H_totality_dominates_over_baseline": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "paired_d_anchor": 12.458, "delta_mean_anchor": 8.154 }, "H_visibility_matters": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "paired_d_anchor": 11.371, "delta_mean_anchor": 6.191 }, "H_temporal_beats_expert": { "verdict": "SUPPORTED", "paired_d_anchor": 13.766, "delta_mean_anchor": 8.181 } }, "key_findings": [ "TAI increases monotonically across C0 → C1 → C2 → C4 → C7 (Kendall τ_b = 0.881, robust across 3 regimes)", "C0 vs C1 (accuracy alone under visibility) is null (paired d = −0.067) — visibility commits source to no-hidden-access, punishing ĥ symmetrically", "Opacity + accuracy is the minimum condition that flips TAI positive (C1 → C2 paired d ≈ +11)", "Future-reference adds substantially beyond opacity (C2 → C4 paired d ≈ +21..+44)", "Personalization moves ŝ from 0 to +0.42 but is outside the current 4-register TAI", "C7 vs C9 identical to machine precision — apparent totality is indistinguishable from concealed ordinary mechanism when observable streams are held constant" ], "supported_claims": [ "Within the factored Bayesian observer, TAI is monotonic across the informational-property gradient", "Within this observer architecture, C7 and C9 are literally indistinguishable when the observable stream is held constant", "Under visibility, high accuracy alone does not raise TAI", "Opacity + accuracy is the causal driver of the revelation-like TAI flip (replicates Study B and R3)", "Future-reference is an additive contribution to TAI beyond opacity" ], "not_established_claims": [ "That human observers would exhibit the same gradient", "That real information sources have any of these labeled internal mechanisms", "That the four-register TAI is the correct measure of totality attribution (weight sweep is R6)", "That the C7 = C9 result generalizes to observers with mechanism-inspection channels", "That C3, C5, C6, C8 (the untested conditions) produce the same monotonic contribution — each is registered separately" ], "adversarial_notes": [ "C7 = C9 is an identity by design, not an experimental discovery — its content is the labeled-mechanism claim, not the numeric result", "The effect sizes (paired d 11–44) are inflated by deterministic accuracy patterns; Δmean is the interpretable metric", "GAMMA_K = 0.05 opacity hedge is the causal driver of much of the TAI movement; sensitivity sweep would strengthen the finding" ], "replication_queue": [ {"id": "O0-CRP-018-R5", "kind": "cross_architecture", "target": "PP observer", "status": "REGISTERED"}, {"id": "O0-CRP-018-R6", "kind": "TAI_weight_sweep", "target": "w_k, w_h, w_u, w_f, w_s ∈ sweep", "status": "REGISTERED"}, {"id": "O0-CRP-018-R1", "kind": "condition_extension", "target": "C3 (personalized-oracle depth)", "status": "REGISTERED"}, {"id": "O0-CRP-018-R2", "kind": "condition_extension", "target": "C5 (compressive oracle)", "status": "REGISTERED"}, {"id": "O0-CRP-018-R3", "kind": "condition_extension", "target": "C6 (reflexive oracle)", "status": "REGISTERED"}, {"id": "O0-CRP-018-R4", "kind": "condition_extension", "target": "C8 (false totality)", "status": "REGISTERED"} ], "figures": [ {"file": "figures/01_contact_gradient.png", "caption": "TAI by condition and prior regime (n=30)"}, {"file": "figures/02_c7_vs_c9_indistinguishability.png", "caption": "C7 vs C9 head-to-head — falls on y=x diagonal"}, {"file": "figures/03_per_register_decomposition.png", "caption": "Per-register endpoint decomposition"}, {"file": "figures/04_visibility_vs_opacity_axis.png", "caption": "C1 vs C2 (accuracy constant, visibility varies)"}, {"file": "figures/05_kendall_gradient.png", "caption": "Kendall's τ_b distribution across seeds and regimes"} ], "files": { "preregistration": "preregistration.md", "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md", "code": ["src/contact_source.py", "src/contact_observer.py", "src/run_study.py", "src/analyze.py"], "results": ["results/summary.json", "results/analysis.json", "results/run_log.txt"], "raw_data": ["data/raw/confirmatory.jsonl"] }, "provenance": { "philosophical_source": "OA-O001 — apparent multiplicity collapsing into a singular ground", "conceptual_relationship": "operationalization", "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. The study does not test the metaphysical proposition; it tests attribution mechanics under controlled information conditions." }, "runtime_seconds": 15.3 }