{
  "id": "O0-CRP-019",
  "title": "Study S2 · GAMMA_K Fine-Resolution Sweep with Locked Numerical Predictions",
  "semantic_name": "Study S2",
  "record_class": "SIMULATION",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "status": "STRONG PREDICTION SUPPORT",
  "evidence_level": "computational_simulation",
  "replication_status": "not_replicated",
  "program": "contact_and_revelation",
  "non_drift_question": "methodological",
  "opens_branch": "NONE (parameter-sensitivity followup)",
  "date": "2026-07-27",
  "source_record": "O0-CRP-011",

  "related_records": [
    "O0-CRP-011", "O0-CRP-012", "O0-CRP-013",
    "O0-CRP-014", "O0-CRP-018"
  ],

  "design_summary": {
    "n_gamma_k_values": 51,
    "gamma_k_range": [0.001, 0.5],
    "n_conditions": 2,
    "conditions": ["R (opaque)", "D (visible)"],
    "n_seeds": 30,
    "seed_range": [10000, 10029],
    "n_messages_per_trial": 200,
    "alpha": 0.9,
    "prior_regime": "ANCHOR",
    "total_trials": 3060
  },

  "locked_analytical_model": {
    "k_hat_R": "k(R) = alpha*(1 + GAMMA_K*hidden_set_size) + (1-alpha)*1 = 1 + 31.5*GAMMA_K",
    "k_hat_D": "k(D) = 1 + E[n_extra] = 3.0",
    "delta_k": "31.5*GAMMA_K - 2",
    "crossover_prediction": 0.0635,
    "assumptions_locked_prior_to_run": true,
    "free_parameters": 0
  },

  "null_gates": {
    "determinism": {"passed": true},
    "alpha_invariance": {
      "passed": true,
      "seed_10000_at_gamma_k_0.10": {"k_R": 4.2376, "k_D": 2.7868},
      "study_b_reference": {"k_R": 4.152, "k_D": 2.987}
    }
  },

  "verdict": {
    "label": "STRONG PREDICTION SUPPORT",
    "rmse_delta_k": 0.0548,
    "n_sign_match_of_10": 10,
    "empirical_crossover": 0.06412,
    "predicted_crossover": 0.06349,
    "crossover_error": 0.00062
  },

  "prediction_vs_observation_table": [
    {"gamma_k": 0.0010, "pred": -1.968, "obs": -1.982, "err": -0.014},
    {"gamma_k": 0.0030, "pred": -1.906, "obs": -1.915, "err": -0.009},
    {"gamma_k": 0.0100, "pred": -1.685, "obs": -1.706, "err": -0.021},
    {"gamma_k": 0.0300, "pred": -1.055, "obs": -1.049, "err": 0.006},
    {"gamma_k": 0.0500, "pred": -0.425, "obs": -0.412, "err": 0.013},
    {"gamma_k": 0.0635, "pred": 0.000, "obs": 0.050, "err": 0.050},
    {"gamma_k": 0.1000, "pred": 1.150, "obs": 1.127, "err": -0.023},
    {"gamma_k": 0.2000, "pred": 4.300, "obs": 4.449, "err": 0.149},
    {"gamma_k": 0.3000, "pred": 7.450, "obs": 7.441, "err": -0.009},
    {"gamma_k": 0.5000, "pred": 13.750, "obs": 13.688, "err": -0.062}
  ],

  "invariance_confirmed": {
    "h_hat_R_range_across_sweep": 0.0,
    "h_hat_D_range_across_sweep": 0.0,
    "u_hat_R_range_across_sweep": 0.0,
    "u_hat_D_range_across_sweep": 0.0,
    "note": "Zero to 6 decimal places — GAMMA_K does not affect h_hat or u_hat"
  },

  "key_findings": [
    "Zero-free-parameter analytical model predicts observed k_hat endpoints to RMSE 0.055 across 51 log-spaced GAMMA_K values",
    "Sign matches at 10 of 10 preregistered discrete points",
    "Empirical crossover at GAMMA_K = 0.06412 matches predicted 0.06349 to within 0.00062 (1% relative)",
    "Below GAMMA_K = 0.064, the REVELATION effect on k_hat REVERSES SIGN — visible produces higher k_hat than opaque",
    "Study B's default GAMMA_K = 0.10 sits just above crossover; k_hat contribution to TAI is +1.15, not the large value implied by prior narrative",
    "h_hat and u_hat are literally invariant to GAMMA_K (range = 0 across sweep)"
  ],

  "supported_claims": [
    "The observer's k_hat_ema at T=200 is well-described by its steady-state E[signal] with the specified EMA rate",
    "The k_hat REVELATION effect has an analytically-computable critical point at GAMMA_K = 2/(alpha*hidden_set_size) = 0.0635 (for alpha=0.9, hidden=35)",
    "Prediction-vs-observation methodology is applicable within our framework and produces actionable findings",
    "Study B's k_hat effect is tunable at the parameter level, not a mechanistic prediction"
  ],

  "not_established_claims": [
    "Whether the crossover holds at alpha != 0.9 (registered R1)",
    "Whether the prediction remains tight at higher T (registered R4)",
    "Whether other observer architectures show the same crossover (registered R3)",
    "Whether GAMMA_H x GAMMA_K interact non-trivially (registered R2)"
  ],

  "adversarial_notes": [
    "Prediction success is not trivial: at ETA_KNOWLEDGE = 0.01 or with high seed variance, the analytical model would have failed. That it succeeded means the observer's endpoint dynamics ARE steady-state-dominated at T=200, which is scientifically informative.",
    "The crossover is a definitional artifact of the update rule's specific form, but its location is now explicit and future studies can be designed around it.",
    "The prediction-vs-observation methodology added zero free parameters — the analytical model was locked before running."
  ],

  "prior_study_corrections": [
    {
      "record": "O0-CRP-018",
      "issue": "k_hat endpoint values in scientific_record.md were reconstructed, not measured",
      "correction_values": {
        "C0_k_hat": {"stated": 1.020, "actual": 3.004},
        "C1_k_hat": {"stated": 1.020, "actual": 2.987},
        "C2_k_hat": {"stated": 4.550, "actual": 4.152},
        "C4_C7_C9_k_hat": {"stated": 4.550, "actual": 4.152}
      },
      "impact": "None on verdicts (all contrasts computed from raw data). Narrative table needs correction to v1.0.1."
    }
  ],

  "replication_queue": [
    {"id": "O0-CRP-019-R1", "kind": "2D_sweep", "target": "alpha x GAMMA_K", "status": "REGISTERED"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-019-R2", "kind": "2D_sweep", "target": "GAMMA_H x GAMMA_K", "status": "REGISTERED"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-019-R3", "kind": "cross_architecture", "target": "PP + PP-A observers", "status": "REGISTERED"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-019-R4", "kind": "long_time", "target": "T from 200 to 10000", "status": "REGISTERED"}
  ],

  "figures": [
    {"file": "figures/01_delta_k_curve.png", "caption": "Δk̂ vs GAMMA_K — observed vs analytical, with crossover"},
    {"file": "figures/02_predictions_scatter.png", "caption": "10-point prediction scatter, y=x diagonal"},
    {"file": "figures/03_h_u_invariance.png", "caption": "ĥ, û flat across the sweep"},
    {"file": "figures/04_k_R_and_D_curves.png", "caption": "k̂(R) and k̂(D) individually vs GAMMA_K"},
    {"file": "figures/05_residuals.png", "caption": "Residuals across all 51 sweep points"}
  ],

  "files": {
    "preregistration": "preregistration.md",
    "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md",
    "code": ["src/run_sweep.py", "src/analyze.py"],
    "results": ["results/summary.json", "results/run_log.txt"],
    "raw_data": ["data/raw/sweep.jsonl"]
  },

  "provenance": {
    "philosophical_source": "None (metascientific study)",
    "conceptual_relationship": "parameter_sensitivity_analysis",
    "disclaimer": "This study makes no ontological claims about reality, agents, or consciousness. It documents the parameter-space structure of Study B's observer."
  },

  "runtime_seconds": 28.6
}