{
  "id": "O0-CRP-023",
  "title": "Order-Emergence Sufficiency — Known evolutionary forces produce order-increase matching theoretical prediction in NK-model simulations",
  "semantic_name": "Order-Emergence Sufficiency",
  "record_class": "SIMULATION",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "status": "SUFFICIENCY SUPPORTED (Hatcher's empirical sufficiency claim unsupported in silico)",
  "evidence_level": "computational_simulation",
  "replication_status": "not_replicated",
  "program": "track_3_hatcher_argument_sufficiency_test",
  "non_drift_question": "AUTHORSHIP (does the observed order-increase require an unobservable force?)",
  "opens_branch": "Track 3 — Hatcher-argument sufficiency test",
  "date": "2026-07-28",
  "source_record": "Hatcher (1994) — A Scientific Proof of the Existence of God",

  "related_records": ["O0-CRP-021", "O0-CRP-022"],

  "source_proposition": "Hatcher §Application to biological evolution: 'if living systems moved statistically in the direction of increasingly less order, there would have to be some unknown force acting in the direction of order-increase' — the argument that known forces are insufficient to explain observed evolutionary order-increase.",

  "operationalization": {
    "fitness_landscape": "NK model with N=20 loci and tunable ruggedness K",
    "known_forces": "mutation + tournament3 selection + finite population (P=100)",
    "order_measure": "max fitness in population (fit_max)",
    "baselines": "random search, frozen genome, high-mutation Muller's ratchet",
    "theoretical_prediction": "adaptive-walk analytical bound: local-optimum ≈ 0.85 − 0.02·K, convergence at G=500"
  },

  "design_summary": {
    "genome_length": 20,
    "landscape_ruggedness_K": [0, 2, 5, 10],
    "population_size": 100,
    "generations": 500,
    "mutation_rate": 0.05,
    "selection": "tournament size 3",
    "n_seeds": 30,
    "seed_range": [14000, 14029],
    "configurations": ["tournament3", "random", "frozen", "high_mutation"],
    "total_trials": 480
  },

  "verdict": {
    "label": "SUFFICIENCY SUPPORTED (Hatcher empirical claim unsupported in silico)",
    "random_search_no_gain": true,
    "frozen_stays_constant": true,
    "high_mutation_regression": true,
    "selection_beats_random_by_5pct": true,
    "mean_abs_delta_vs_theory": 0.089,
    "max_abs_delta_vs_theory": 0.135,
    "per_K_deltas": {
      "0":  -0.132,
      "2":  -0.024,
      "5":  +0.066,
      "10": +0.135
    }
  },

  "key_findings": [
    "Tournament selection produces reliable fitness gains of +0.06 to +0.13 across K values (all statistically overwhelming).",
    "Random search produces no meaningful gain (mean gain -0.007 across K).",
    "Frozen genome stays exactly constant (gain = 0.000).",
    "High mutation regresses vs tournament (Muller's ratchet regime).",
    "Observed final fitness matches theoretical adaptive-walk prediction to mean absolute delta of 0.089 (below preregistered 10% threshold).",
    "All four sanity controls pass; no residual order-increase requiring unmodeled forces."
  ],

  "supported_claims": [
    "Under known evolutionary forces (variation + selection + finite population), NK-model populations reliably produce order-increase.",
    "Order-increase requires selection: without selection, no order emerges.",
    "The magnitude of observed order-increase matches theoretical predictions within 10% mean absolute delta.",
    "The Hatcher-style 'unexplained order-increase' premise is not satisfied in this computational operationalization."
  ],

  "not_established_claims": [
    "Anything about actual biological evolution on Earth — this is in silico.",
    "That Hatcher's abductive methodology is wrong — the methodology is not tested.",
    "That God exists or does not exist.",
    "Anything about the origin of life, protein folding, or specific evolutionary transitions.",
    "That sufficiency holds at biological scales (N ≈ 10^6 bits, G ≈ 10^9 generations) — registered R3.",
    "That the NK model class is representative of biological fitness landscapes."
  ],

  "adversarial_notes": [
    "The theoretical prediction 0.85 − 0.02·K is an analytical rough bound, not a rigorous derivation. A refined prediction (R2) might change deltas.",
    "At K=0, observed under-performs theoretical prediction (delta = -0.132). Reason: mutation-only GA takes longer than expected to fixate on the single global peak.",
    "At K=5,10, observed exceeds theoretical prediction (delta up to +0.135). Reason: the analytical bound underestimates local-optimum fitness for intermediate ruggedness.",
    "Neither type of deviation implies an unmodeled evolutionary force. Both fit within known limitations of the analytical prediction.",
    "In silico results do not automatically map to biological scales. The rate arguments in Hatcher's paper concern earth-scale time and complexity; our simulation uses computational scales."
  ],

  "replication_queue": [
    {"id": "O0-CRP-023-R1", "kind": "alternative_landscapes", "target": "Royal Road, HIFF, RNA folding, protein-like landscapes", "status": "REGISTERED"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-023-R2", "kind": "rigorous_theory", "target": "Wright-Fisher fixation-probability derivation", "status": "REGISTERED"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-023-R3", "kind": "scaling_test", "target": "N ∈ {50, 100, 500}, G ∈ {5000, 50000}", "status": "REGISTERED"},
    {"id": "O0-CRP-023-R4", "kind": "recombination", "target": "Add crossover to mutation-only GA", "status": "REGISTERED"}
  ],

  "figures": [
    {"file": "figures/01_headline_fitness_by_K.png", "caption": "Headline: fit_max at G=500 by K and configuration; tournament3 tracks theoretical prediction."},
    {"file": "figures/02_trajectories_by_K.png", "caption": "Fitness trajectories per generation, per K, per config."},
    {"file": "figures/03_order_gain.png", "caption": "Order-increase (fitness gain end−start) — present only when selection acts."},
    {"file": "figures/04_observed_vs_predicted.png", "caption": "Observed vs theoretical fitness scatter plus per-K deltas."}
  ],

  "files": {
    "preregistration": "preregistration.md",
    "scientific_record": "scientific_record.md",
    "code": ["src/run_study.py", "src/analyze.py"],
    "results": ["results/summary.json"],
    "raw_data": ["results/raw/trajectories.jsonl"]
  },

  "provenance": {
    "philosophical_source": "Hatcher (1994), Journal of Bahá'í Studies 5:4",
    "exact_proposition_tested": "That known evolutionary forces (variation + selection + finite population + energy input) are insufficient to produce observed order-increase in reasonable time",
    "conceptual_relationship": "empirical_test_of_specific_claim_within_philosophical_argument",
    "disclaimer": "Conceptual provenance is not empirical support. This study tests the sufficiency of known evolutionary forces in a specific computational model. It does not test Hatcher's abductive methodology, ontological conclusion, or claims about actual biological evolution."
  },

  "runtime_seconds": 384.5
}