{
  "id": "O0-CRP-032",
  "title": "Confirmatory Test of the Chaos-Washout Finding",
  "program": "CONTACT_AND_REVELATION",
  "track": "Track 2 followup — confirmatory test of CRP-031 emergent finding",
  "status": "complete",
  "record_class": "REPLICATION",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "date_completed": "2026-07-29",
  "preregistration_frozen_before_execution": true,
  "verdict": {
    "preregistered": "PARTIALLY_CONFIRMED",
    "leaning": "FEATURE_LIMITATION",
    "for_claim": "chaos-washout hypothesis from CRP-031"
  },
  "corrects_prior_record": {
    "id": "O0-CRP-031",
    "field": "exploratory finding: chaos-washout",
    "original_status": "EXPLORATORY OBSERVATION — requires preregistered confirmatory followup",
    "revised_status": "CORRECTED-DOWN — substantially a measurement-weakness artifact; not a substantive property of chaos",
    "core_findings_preserved": [
      "CROSS_CLASS_INVARIANT for matched-source indistinguishability (still holds; further supported by T=1000+aug replication)",
      "Realization theorem across 5 classes (still holds; further supported by T=1000 replication in 2 chaotic systems)",
      "CLASS_SPECIFIC verdict on numeric δ*(0.7) (still holds)"
    ]
  },
  "key_findings": [
    {
      "system": "lorenz-63",
      "cell": "D (T=1000, base+augmented features, 226 features)",
      "delta_star_070": 0.5,
      "was_never_in_crp031": true,
      "auc_at_delta_1.0": 0.9018,
      "was_0.5329_in_crp031": true,
      "matched_dual_auc": 0.437,
      "positive_control_auc": 1.0,
      "realization_bit_identical": true,
      "interpretation": "Chaos-washout completely lifts under better measurement. The CRP-031 chaos-washout observation for Lorenz was a measurement-weakness artifact."
    },
    {
      "system": "van der pol",
      "cell": "D (T=1000, base+augmented features, 226 features)",
      "delta_star_070": 0.7,
      "was_never_in_crp031": true,
      "auc_at_delta_1.0": 0.7361,
      "was_0.6975_in_crp031": true,
      "matched_dual_auc": 0.438,
      "positive_control_auc": 1.0,
      "realization_bit_identical": true,
      "interpretation": "Chaos-washout partially lifts. Discriminability emerges at δ=0.7 but not below the preregistered 0.5 threshold. VdP retains some resistance the augmented battery does not fully address."
    }
  ],
  "augmented_feature_battery": {
    "total_features": 80,
    "components": {
      "nonlinear_cross_correlations": 16,
      "cross_mutual_information_lag0": 16,
      "cross_mutual_information_lag5": 16,
      "permutation_entropy": 8,
      "transfer_entropy_proxy": 16,
      "approximate_lyapunov": 8
    }
  },
  "sample": {
    "world_seeds": "21000-21029",
    "trials_per_class": 200,
    "trial_offset": 500000,
    "trajectory_length_T": 1000,
    "total_trajectories": 4400,
    "runtime_seconds": 2661.8
  },
  "related": ["O0-CRP-031", "O0-CRP-022", "O0-CRP-024", "O0-CRP-025"],
  "followups_registered": [
    { "id": "CRP-033a", "topic": "Why is Van der Pol different from Lorenz? Cycle-phase alignment + waveform-shape features." },
    { "id": "CRP-032b (ablation)", "topic": "Run cells B (T=200+aug) and C (T=1000+base) to attribute Lorenz recovery to T vs features." },
    { "id": "CRP-033b (capacity ceiling)", "topic": "High-dimensional systems (n=64+) and heavy-tailed noise." }
  ],
  "core_claims_preserved_under_stronger_measurement": [
    "Matched-source indistinguishability (Lorenz 0.437, VdP 0.438 — in chance band)",
    "Realization theorem bit-identical at T=1000 in both systems",
    "Positive control passes at AUC = 1.0 with augmented battery"
  ]
}